Realpolitik 201: Gun Control, ObamaCare & Civil War, by Al Martin

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by Al Martin

Realpolitik 201: Gun Control, ObamaCare & Civil War

(1-22-13) Recently there has been some chatter about gun control and the possibility of a civil war because of new firearms restrictions – but it just ain’t so. Here’s why…

The nation is polarized again because gun control is always a divisive issue. A record number of the population wants stiffer gun control and the Democrats as well as the changing demographics of the United States support that. That’s why the Republicans are increasingly a spent force and a party of the past,

Changing demographics, i.e. younger people, are moving the United States more to the left on social issues and increasingly on economic issues as well. There will be a compromise on the gun control issue -- as there always is.

Since the 1980s, every gun control initiative has wound up in a compromise. The Democrats need it because they understand the political value to them, but they also understand that they can’t go too far with the issue.

Of course Governor Andrew Cuomo and the New York legislature have passed new draconian gun laws, which parallel the draconian Rockefeller drug laws, but that isn’t hppening in Colorado or Nevada.

People who are the most ardent supporters of 2nd amendment rights and people who believe there should be no restrictions at all and people should be free to purchase cannons to shoot deer look at New York as being a virtual communist state. But that doesn’t really play into the greater argument.

Then there’s Obama’s executive orders on gun control in which he’s tying in guns with mental health as an ObamaCare issue. Why? Because ObamaCare will create a national database that will make it easier to enforce and stiffen existing laws, so that the mentally unsound will not be able to purchase firearms, which is now unenforceable because there is no national database. ObamaCare will create that database.

It has been said that doctors would then become defacto snitches to the government regarding their patients. And that’s true. They will become snitches – if they want to get paid. They can’t help but to be snitches. If they’re submitting billing to some national health care system, then if the patient’s problem is mental or emotional, that’s going to be reflected in their billing. They’re not purposely being snitches nor are they being turned into snitches. They’re just submitting their bills in order to get paid. It’s the government that’s collecting the data and putting together a national database, which is a necessary feature of any taxpayer-funded health care system.

There’s nothing necessarily onerous about that even though the internet conspiratorially minded kind of people read a lot into this. But they’re a minority.

The changing demographics of the nation means that younger people are not adverse to new restrictions on firearms, even as the older Vietnam War era veterans are the ones who are up in arms so to speak and who are demonstrating around the country against any new restrictions. Nevertheless they are the minority – and with each passing year there’s fewer of them. And they’re not being replaced.

The new crop of veterans who have returned from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are largely supportive of gun restrictions because they are the younger generation.

The important number to remember that will affect the nation politically economically and socially is that 75% of new 18-year old voters are registering Democrat. That’s the important change that’s taking place here, especially when you add that to the New Electro Hand Held Contraption Generation which is ostensibly anti-gun to begin with.

The Democratic Party is moving to the left, so that the conservative coalition that once existed in the Democratic Party which was concentrated in the Boll Weevil and Plains States Democrats –it’s gone. Just like the moderate faction, called the Eisenhower Republicans, which once existed in the Republican Party is now largely a thing of the past. The Rockefeller Republicans who were left-leaning are also gone, consigned to the annals of history.

This is the result when there is a purposeful effort by government to continuously polarize the country. The traditional “middle” which once dominated both parties is being squeezed out. The effect of this is that the numbers of conservatives is declining because they’re not being replaced.

Thus the likelihood of civil war in America is little to none. It may be an incendiary situation, but it’s still nonsense. First of all, there will be a compromise worked out on current gun legislation that will allow the Democrats to extract as much political gravy out of the issue as they can, whilst throwing a bone to the Republican conservative factions.

You’re still going to be able to buy 50 caliber machine guns (if you really need one). But the compromise is going to be some further restrictions on what are called “high capacity” magazines. Some further restrictions on ammunition and a stiffening of the law -- and that’s how it’s getting portrayed for political purposes – even though it’s not) but it’s actually an increased effort to enforce the law regarding the mentally unsound from buying firearms. And that’s what’s going to happen.

The Right is going to be in arms about it because they have to be. That’s where their political gravy is… But in the end what really changes?

Nothing changes. Those who are pissed off about it can’t buy 20 mm cannons to hunt deer with. Now you can only buy 50 caliber machine guns, but you can’t get cannons or rocket propelled grenade launchers to hunt deer with. Those people will always be pissed off but there’s nothing they can do about it.

Remember – civil wars take money. Someone has to finance them. All the pissed off gun owner types, the so-called patriot community with their nonsense -- if you turned them upside down and shook them, you wouldn’t get a ten dollar bill out of them. That’s why they’re not a threat. No money equals no power equals no threat. That’s a simple equation that has always existed. That’s not going to change.

You don’t see Wealthy Republicans out there with machine guns. They only pay lip service to the gun issue because they know there’s political gravy for them.

The thing about “civil war” particularly in the United States is that it’s got to be in somebody’s interest and ability to fund it, as was the so-called American Civil War. Those who made money on the Civil War were those bankers and trading houses and insurance firms in New York who stood the most to lose by the existence of a separate nation in the south. The southern states were effectively financed by New York and London. The causes of all wars, civil or otherwise, are economic.

There isn’t going to be a civil war because nobody can make any money financing it. What are you going to do? Sell more guns to the busted out patriot community who are already loaded up on them? Or sell them more survival gear when they’re already loaded up on survival gear? Sell them more steel tubes so they can live underground?

Nobody can make any money. No profit potential equals no civil war.

In this case the internet helps, since the government has allowed it to be open with very little regulation, which was obviously done on purpose to allow those who are opposed to government policies in some fashion, whether political, social or economic, to have websites to air their views and to act as a pressure valve, while it also allowed government to identify, monitor and surveil those who are hostile to it. That was the purpose of Facebook, which is government’s best friend.

Then there’s the incessant identifying of ever more information about individuals who volunteer it. Who does it really help? It doesn’t really help business and industry who are interested in targeting products or promotions. Other beneficiaries include government and organized crime.

Today in this new era, everyone wants to spend all day long with their hand held battery operated electro contraptions, instead of making money make money, communicating with other people who know equally little.

Now there are a lot of Democrats on the left led by the Schumers of this world that would like a complete ban on firearms like what exists in Britain for instance. The problem is that you give the Republicans the ammunition, so to speak, which they always get with this issue, which is – look at Britain and other socialist welfare countries that have banned firearms -- and look at the thousand percent increase in crime. They also say -- look at the fact that there are more firearms in the hands of private citizens than when they were legal.

The only place where there’s any real money in this whole issue is to make private ownership of firearms completely illegal. How? Because you create a black market which increases demand for them. Then you have a 9 mm pistol which used to retail for $499.95 sells for $1500 under the counter. It isn’t any less available than it was before.

However who’s going to make money on this? There’s not enough big corporate interest in that. In other words, even though there’s money to be made in the “illegalization” of firearms, it isn’t an organized stream of money from a small group of large corporations that are going to be making that money. There’s no “right” people to make it happen. Hence it isn’t going to happen.

* AL MARTIN is an independent economic-political analyst with 25 years of experience as a trader on NYMEX, CME, CBOT and CFTC. As a former contributor to the Presidential Council of Economic Advisors, Al Martin is considered to be a source of independent analysis for financially sophisticated and market savvy investors.

After working as a broker on Wall Street, Al Martin was involved in the so-called "Iran Contra" Affair as a fundraiser for the Bush Cabal from the covert side of government aka the US Shadow Government.

His memoir, "The Conspirators: Secrets of an Iran Contra Insider," (http://www.almartinraw.com) provides an unprecedented look at the frauds of the Bush Cabal during the Iran Contra era. His weekly column, "Behind the Scenes in the Beltway," is published weekly on Al Martin Raw.com, which also publishes a bimonthly newsletter called "Whistleblower Gazette."

Al Martin's new website "Insider Intelligence" (http://www.insiderintelligence.com) will provide a long term macro-view of world markets and how they are affected by backroom realpolitik.

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